April 2025 Economic Advisor Now Available

The April 2025 issue of the NFFS Economic Advisor by ITR Economics is now available for NFFS members. 

FEATURED ARTICLE

A Closer Look: The U.S. Economy – How Well Positioned Is the US Consumer?
by Caroline Dunsby, ITR Economics

HOW IS THE CONSUMER REALLY DOING?
Consumers are spending more than ever. US Personal Consumption Expenditures on both Goods and Services are at record highs. Part of this rise is attributable to inflation and part is associated with increased volume. For example, Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods are up 39% since 2019, with 21% of the increase (after adjusting for inflation) due to volume gains and the remainder due to inflation. 

How are incomes keeping up with increased prices and spending? Adjusted for inflation, Personal Income (excluding transfer receipts) is at record highs, though the pace of rise is slowing. While this does not include transfer receipts such as Social Security, it does include categories that tend to benefit all workers, such as wages and salaries, as well as categories like dividend income, interest income, and proprietors’ income, which tend to benefit higher-net-worth individuals. Read more

Also in this month's Advisor:

• ITR's Macroeconomic Outlook: "US trade policy is fluid. For now, uncertainty abounds for consumers and businesses, reigniting financial market turmoil and dormant fears of a strained supply chain." 
• Make Your Move: "If you plan to finance business investments to capitalize on growth ahead, focus more on the payback period rather than trying to time a low in interest rates, as they are likely to remain sticky."
• Investor Update: "The S&P 500 declined 5.8% in March as investors grappled with the fallout from tariffs." 
• ITR Economics' Long Term View: "2025 - Mild Growth (Weaker 1st Half), 2026 - Growth,  2027 - Slowing Growth."
• Leading Indicator Snapshot: "The dominant color for our macroeconomy in 2025 is green, though this year may be more of a light green, as leading indicators are mostly in shallow, sometimes inconsistent upward trends rather than shooting up ..."
• Manufacturing Industry Analysis: "Annual US Total Manufacturing Production is in a nascent accelerating growth trend, coming in 0.1% above the year-ago level."
• State-by-State Analysis: GDP: "US Real Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter came in 2.5% above the year-ago level."
• Reader's Forum: "Federal workers make up 1.9% of the current workforce in the US, totaling 3.0 million workers."